Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Forecast – GBP
The week ahead isn’t packed with UK economic data, but there are a few key pieces that may influence the British Pound exchange rate. The week will begin with Monday’s Markit UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February, followed by the Services and Composite PMIs on Tuesday. Thursday will bring with it the latest Halifax House Prices stats.
The main driver for Sterling will be Brexit, especially with the March 29th deadline fast approaching. With a number of votes scheduled in the coming weeks, comments by politicians and any Brexit developments will likely influence the Pound Sterling exchange rate.
Euro Exchange Rate Predictions – EUR
Monday will bring with it the Sentix Eurozone Investor Confidence stat, as well as the currency bloc’s Producer Price Indexes. Tuesday will show the Italian Gross Domestic Product stat and Eurozone Retail Sales numbers. Wednesday continues with Markit’s German Construction PMI for February, ahead of Thursday’s Eurozone Government Expenditure, and final Eurozone Gross Domestic Product figure for the fourth quarter.
One of the most interesting developments likely to impact the Euro exchange rate in the week ahead will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision. Given the central bank has recently ended its massive quantitative easing programme, investors will be keen to hear the language used in the face of recent downbeat economic data. Any hint of further monetary stimulus could weigh on the Euro exchange rate significantly. Friday will close the week with the German Factory Orders stat.
US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast – USD
The start of the week will bring with it the US Durable Goods Orders number, as well as the Advance Goods Trade Balance and Construction Spending stats. Tuesday will continue with the ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite reading and New Home Sales stat.
Wednesday will see the US Federal Reserve release its latest Beige Book which could offer the US Dollar some exchange rate movement. Additionally, the ADP Employment Change figure will be out, which is usually seen as a precursor to Friday’s Change in Non-Farm Payrolls reading. The February Non-Farms figure is expected to come in at 220K after January’s massive 304K. Another overshoot in the ecostat could allow the US Dollar to gain. However, any geopolitical tensions or further trade disputes could stand to make investors cautious. That being said, in recent months, the US Dollar has been utilised as a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical uncertainty between the US and China.