Today could be an interesting day for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) and Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rates with a host of highly influential labour market data being revealed across the pond.
The Pound has softened against the US Dollar in the last few days, and is now trading in the region of 1.3093. Brexit uncertainty is weighing on Sterling, and next week’s parliamentary votes will likely cause some significant Sterling volatility. The Pound could rally should a no-deal Brexit be ruled out, and an extension to Article 50 be seen.
Canadian and US Payrolls Data in Focus for CAD and USD Exchange Rates
Canadian ecostats will start the North American data stream today, with the latest Housing Starts print. The February number is expected to come in at 203.5K, after the January reading of 208.0K. Shortly after, the Canadian Net Change in Employment stat will be out, expected to come in at a disappointing -2.5K contraction in February, after January’s more positive 66.8K. The Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 5.80%, while the Hourly Wage Rate for Permanent Employees is forecast to see a minor increase from 1.80% to 1.90% on the year.
Meanwhile, the US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls is predicted to see a rise of 180K in February, lower than some of the highs we’ve seen in recent months such as January’s 304K. The US Unemployment rate is also pegged to fall, from 4.00% to 3.90%. In good news for American workers, Average Hourly Earnings are thought to see an upswing from 3.20% to 3.30% on the year in February.
Chinese Exports Slip – CNY/GBP Exchange Rate Trending Lower
It’s a quiet day for UK data, but other geopolitical events and murmurs over Brexit may create some Sterling movement. Fears over China’s economy are mounting today after ecostats showed a worrying decline in exports. The February reading clocked a -20.70% decline on the year, despite forecasts for a much smaller -5.0% contraction. The January figure had resided at 9.10%.
The plunge lower shows the Chinese economy is feeling the impact of the global slowdown gradually taking hold of economies, as well as the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs. It’s worth noting that this news comes just a day after the European Central Bank cut its growth predictions and announced it would be taking steps to boost the struggling economy.