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Pound Climbs, No-Deal Brexit Likelihood Falls Falls (GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD)

July 18, 2019 9:09 am | Modified July 19, 2019 8:14 am
AUD, Brexit, EUR, GBP, USD | BY Ben Scott

British Pound exchange rates remain under pressure with Brexit uncertainty continuing to loom large. However, against the US Dollar, Sterling found something of a reprieve yesterday after disappointing house building statistics were published across the Atlantic. With Theresa May now in her last week of office, concern over the potential for political chaos under her successor is likely to keep a lid on any upside for the Pound. The Aussie Dollar also performed notably well overnight, gaining ground over Sterling (AUD/GBP) after Aussie employment data suggested the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may have done enough for now in terms of interest rate cuts.

Update: The Pound has continued to climb against the Euro and US Dollar in Thursday’s trading session. MPs backed an amendment that could prevent Conservative Party frontrunner Boris Johnson from shutting down Parliament to pass a no-deal Brexit in October.

Update: Moving into Friday morning’s trading, the Pound is in a relatively tight range, trending slightly lower against the US Dollar, Euro, and Australian Dollar. UK Public Finances data will be out later in the session, along with the University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment stat.

Weak US Housing Data Offers Cable (GBP/USD) Some Temporary Respite

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) found a little respite yesterday following the release of some significantly worse-than-expected US Building Permits data. Despite falling mortgage rates across the Atlantic, applications to build new houses fell for a second straight month to the lowest level in two years. Land and labour shortages are said to be behind the move, so this may prove sufficient deflect some concern away from the reading which has previously been seen as an indicator of recession. However, the news was sufficient to help drag Cable back from its test of two-year lows, at least for now.

UK Political Uncertainty Keeps Pound Exchange Rate in Check

Markets may have priced in Brexit uncertainty, but it seems as if the impending political chaos starting next week, once a new Conservative Party leader is announced and new Prime Minister appointed, may still need to be priced in. Parliament is, however, strengthening its resolve to ensure it cannot be suspended to allow a no-deal Brexit to be forced through. The House of Lords voted yesterday to provide further safeguards here and the bill will return to the House of Commons today for a second reading. The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) remains close to six-week lows, but anything that points towards another general election being necessary in the Autumn has the scope to see further selling here.

Why Did it Move? Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) fell last night despite a decidedly mixed employment report from Canberra. However, upward revisions to May’s data and solid growth in terms of full-time jobs appear to have been sufficient to convince markets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn’t need to jump in with another rate cut just yet. Having traded as high as 1.7760 yesterday, the cross now sits almost a cent lower at 1.7670.

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