There are lots of economic events forecast to influence the Pound (GBP), Euro (EUR), and US Dollar (USD) exchange rates in the week ahead. From US growth numbers, to European interest rate decisions.
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has slipped below the 1.30 level, residing at around 1.2988, almost a three-week low. However, on Tuesday morning the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate and Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rates were trending in a tight range following Theresa May’s speech in the House of Commons yesterday. May suggested that the UK was trying to spur talks along by putting new customs arrangements in front of negotiators, and that Brexit plans were almost 95% done.
Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast
The week ahead is quite quiet in terms of economic data. Tuesday will see the release of the latest CBI Business Optimism Index and CBI Industrial Trends Orders data. Meanwhile, Wednesday will bring with it the UK Financial Mortgage Approvals number for September. Friday will close the week with the CBI Distributive Trades number.
Economic data has taken a bit of a back seat of late with Brexit so close. Brexit developments have been influencing Sterling since the vote, but with only 160 days to go, crunch time approaches. Comments from the EU and UK could create Pound Sterling exchange rate movements. With no November summit scheduled, investors will be looking towards the December meeting.
Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast
The Euro exchange rate could be influenced by a few key pieces of data in the week ahead. Tuesday will bring with it the latest Flash Consumer Confidence reading for October, with forecasts suggesting a further slip from -2.9 to -3.2.
On Wednesday, Markit’s Manufacturing, Services, and Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) for October will be out. Thursday will continue with the latest European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, and follow-up press conference. ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments will be closely watched and have the potential to shift markets dramatically.
US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rate Forecast
It’s a busy week ahead for US data. Even central bankers are working on the weekend, with Raphael Bostic due to give a speech today. There are a few speeches from Federal Reserve representatives on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, but Thursday is when the data heats up. The September Durable Goods Orders stat will be out with an economist consensus a fall will take place. The August figure reached 4.5%, but some forecasters are suggesting a -2.3% contraction will occur in September.
Friday’s data will probably be the star of the show. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate number will be out. Some economists believe the third-quarter is expected to come in at 3.3%, a decline from the previous quarter’s 4.2%. If this happens, US Dollar weakness might occur.
On Friday, GBP/EUR was trading in the region of 1.13 while the GBP/USD exchange rate was trading at interbank levels of 1.30.