The Pound exchange rate had a bad start to Tuesday when it retraced some of its gains against the euro (GBP/EUR), US Dollar (GBP/USD), and South African Rand (GBP/ZAR). Monday’s trading had seen the British currency climb against the US Dollar and Euro as Sterling strength swept across the board on hopes for a soft Brexit.
Rabobank’s head of currency strategy Jane Foley commented:
‘News that labour will table amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill to prevent a hard Brexit if parliament rejects the outcome of the Brexit talks is to be taken well by the market. It means less chance of a hard Brexit.’
A Downing Street spokesman said that MP’s will be offered a ‘meaningful vote’ on the bill, but that the vote would be a simple choice between leaving the EU with the deal or leaving without it. There would be no vote on whether the UK remains within the EU.
US Dollar Exchange Rate Awaiting US Consumer Confidence Index
Today could be an interesting day for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate with the release of the latest US Consumer Confidence Index. Markets are currently expecting the index to inch higher from 130.8 to 131.0, but a rise higher could bode well for the recovering US Dollar.
EUR Exchange Rate Stronger – Five Star Movement and League Form Alliance
Thursday’s forecast to be an influential day for the Euro Pound exchange rate with the release of several influential German ecostats. The German Unemployment Change and German Unemployment Claims Rate numbers will be out, as well as the March German inflation reading.
In politics, the populist Five Star Movement and far-right League have formed an alliance in a surprise move. Most had thought the possibility of the two forming a governing alliance was slim, but the two agreed on parliamentary speakers over the weekened, yet the discussion as to who would serve as Prime Minister is yet to be resolved.
South African Rand Exchange Rate Climbs after Moody’s Rating
The South African Rand has been offered some support against other currency majors when Moody’s let South Africa escape another review without being downgraded to junk status. The country managed to uphold the baa3 rating, just slightly above junk, and revised the outlook from negative, to a more favourable stable.
‘The recovery of the country’s institutions will, if sustained, gradually support a corresponding recovery in its economy, along with a stabilisation of fiscal strength.’
Now, eyes will turn to the next monetary policy decision by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) due to take place on the 28th. The central bank is forecast to stand pat with repo rates at 6.75%.’