The Pound continued to slump on Friday, trending lower against the Euro (GBP/EUR), US Dollar (GBP/USD), and the Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY). It’s been a quiet week for data and there’s no UK data due out on Friday to influence Sterling, meaning market movement will be driven by either politics or events elsewhere. Brexit seems to be creating some fluctuations this week, and in the lead-up to the June summit, this could intensify.
Pound softness seems to be a theme this week and Sterling’s begun Thursday weakening against the Euro (GBP/EUR), US Dollar (GBP/USD), and Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) as markets watched Brexit progress unfold.
Pound (GBP) Exchange Rate Falls as Irish Border and Other Brexit Issues Continue
On Thursday, the Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar suggested that if the UK government failed to make ‘real and substantial progress’ before the June Brexit summit, there’s the chance there will be no withdrawal agreement.
Speaking to the Irish Times, Varadkar said:
‘If we are not making real and substantial progress by June then we need to seriously question whether we’re going to have a withdrawal agreement at all. We stand by the text of the withdrawal agreement and the text of the protocol published in March as does the taskforce and the 27 member states that are behind us.’
You can take a look at the EU’s published draft of the withdrawal agreement, by clicking here. At present, around 75% has been agreed but there’s still a long way to go before 100% is covered by the October deadline.
Today’s Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast
It’s a very quiet week for economic data meaning political developments and other geopolitical events could influence currencies more than usual. The April EU New Car Registrations figure printed at 9.6%, an improvement on March’s -5.3%. Throughout the day European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Constancio will be speaking which could give the Euro exchange rate some cause to move.
US Dollar (USD) and Turkish Lira (TRY) Exchange Rate Forecasts
Across the pond, the US will print weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims data, as well as the April Leading Index and the May Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook which could create some moderate market movement.
In Turkey, Wednesday saw Industrial Production slip on the year in March, from 10.1% to 7.6%, while Auto Production dropped dramatically into contraction territory in April, falling from 1.0% to -7.0%.
Meanwhile, Thursday has brought with it Retail Sales numbers. The month of March showed a 0.5% increase after the February -0.8% decline. On the year, the ecostat rose by 7.4%, a slight fall from February’s 8.3%.
The Pound to Turkish Lira (GBP/TRY) exchange rate is trending at 5.9928. The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is trading at levels of 1.3493. The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trending at 1.1444.